NCCOS Project Explorer (NPE)

ECOFOR 2004: Climate Change and intertidal biogeography Forecasting the effects of climate change on the biogeography of foundation species in estuarine and rocky intertidal ecosystems(2005)

Project Description:
limate Change and Intertidal Biogeography - Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on the Biogeography of Foundation Species in Estuarine and Rocky Intertidal Ecosystems: This project is part of the CSCOR Ecological Forecasting (EcoFore) Program. This proposal is developing forecasts of the impacts of climate change (primarily temperature increase) on the population biology of several intertidal and estuarine species, with an overall goal of predicting the impacts on commercially and recreationally important species. The PIs are developing mechanistic links between climate, geography, and population biology of the dominant large estuarine sediment-dwellers, and rocky intertidal species. The geographic range of the project ranges from Alaska to Mexico on Pacific Coast and Maine to South Carolina on Atlantic Coast. Five National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) on each coast are included as sample sites and represent different biogeographic provinces (West Coast: Kachemak Bay AK, Padilla Bay WA, South Slough OR, Tijuana River CA; East Coast: Wells Bay ME, Waquoit Bay MA, Chesapeake Bay VA, North Carolina, North Inlet SC). Needs assessments for coastal managers will be undertaken in the first year of the project. The project will also eventually provide training for NERRs directors and coastal resource managers in the use of the coastal forecasting tools developed. The target organisms are considered ecosystem foundation species. For sedimentary shores, the target organisms are sediment disruptors (e.g., shrimp and worms) and tube and reef builders (e.g., worms, oysters). For rocky shores, the targeted organisms are dominant space occupiers such as barnacles and mussels. The sites span the geographic limits of ecosystem foundation species. http://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting

Expected Outcome:
This project is making important contributions to coastal resource management by developing forecasting tools for coastal managers and planners and will provide training for their use. The PIs will develop mechanistic links between climate, geography, and population biology of the dominant large estuarine sediment-dwellers, and rocky intertidal species. Needs assessments for coastal managers will be undertaken in the first year of the project. The project will also eventually provide training for NERRs directors and coastal resource managers in the use of the coastal forecasting tools developed. Goals of the project are: Use NERRS observations and satellite (TOVS, AVHRR, MODIS, ASTER) to model body temperature of ecologically important intertidal species; Ground truth models with biomimetic sensors; Use validated models to produce maps of body temperature of ecologically important species on Atlantic and Pacific Coasts; Compare body temperature estimates to geographic limits; Hindcast using historical data to determine if range shifts can be explained by climate data; Identify intertidal “hot spots” where climate change should have large effects; Forecast effects of decadal and seasonal scale climate change on geographic distribution of ecosystem foundation species and; Communicate results through NERRS Coastal Training Program.