NCCOS Project Explorer (NPE)

Forecasting the Ecological Impacts of Hurricanes through the Integration of Retrospective Remotely Sensed Imagery with Hydrographic and Biological Data (2009)

Project Description:
Ecological forecasts to predict ecosystem response to hurricanes of the last 10 years will be derived from retrospective geo-spatially improved SST (Sea Surface Temperature) imagery and contemporary NOAA oceanographic and fisheries-dependent and fisheries-independent data collections from the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Geospatial data integration and visualization is one of the themes defined for the Northern Gulf of Mexico Cooperative Institute. Our improvement of SST imagery and its association with field data fits into this theme and will assist ecosystem managers with their regional forecast, resource management, and policy decisions in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Characterization of environmental conditions using SST imagery, and in situ oceanographic and biological data are fundamental for forecasting fisheries harvests. The enhanced scientific understanding of the interconnections between remotely collected geospatial data, oceanographic and biological data supporting these forecasts will enable an ecosystem based approach to the management of this region, which is one of NOAA's primary goals. Synoptic SST images derived from AVHRR (Podesta et al. 1993, Scavia et al. 1995, Ladner and Arnone 1998) collected daily by NOAA provide a spatially coherent record of water temperatures in the Northern Gulf of Mexico that can be used to characterize the impacts of past hurricane events and forecast the effects of future events in this area. Water temperature is an important ecological variable that is linked to oceanographic and biological processes: destratification (upwelling), Gulf Loop and Gulf Stream meanders and eddy propagation, biological production, spawning, recruitment, and species distributions. SST imagery will be associated with additional oceanographic measurements and biological data will provide information on ecosystem status and production for ecosystem managers. As an ecosystem based approach for the develop of marine management strategies and policy decisions concerning extreme events, such as hurricanes, forecast developed from retrospective data analysis provide a powerful tool that can be used to predict the impacts from hurricanes on marine habitats and commercial fisheries.

Expected Outcome:
Task 1: Compile, register and cross-calibrate the approximately 12,000 SST images for the Gulf of Mexico 1992 through present. Completion date is Dec. 2006. Task 2: Obtain and conduct QA/QC on SEAMAP bottom trawl, CTD, and oxygen measurements and biological data. Completion date is Mar. 2007.Database of registered and cross-calibrated (temperature) daytime SST images for Hurricane Seasons of the Gulf of Mexico 1992 through present. This database will be accurate to within an average of 1 KM root mean squared error (accurate to within 1 pixel) and sufficient for extraction of remotely obtained data from the coastal ocean and large estuarie (water bodies greater than 3 pixels in minimum dimesion). QA/QC'd database on SEAMAP bottom trawl, CTD, oxygen measurements, and biological data for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. We will cooperate with database holders to evaluate data quality for use in this and other research applications. Spatial and temporal correlation analysis of remote imagery with hydrographic,menhaden fisheries and other biological data. We expect to find a change in habitat condtion (water temperature and clarity), correlation between indices of habitat condition and both biological indices (e.g. remotely estimate chlorophyll in surface waters) and menhaden fishery production related to incidence of hurricanes in the region. Integrated remote imagery, hydrographic, and biological geospatial database. The improved and documented spatial accuracy of the remote imagery will provide a superior integrate geospatial database. Habitat indices before and after hurricane passage in the Northern Gulf of Mexico ecosystem Preliminary forecasts of impacts to fisheries yields from hurricanes based on changes in habitat indices The improved remote database and integrated geospatial database will support research and development of hurricane imapact assessment of coastal aquatic habitats and a basis for development of idices suitable for ecoforecasts of hurricanes on these habitats and the biological production and menhaden fishery production impacted the hurricanes