NCCOS Project Explorer (NPE)

Understanding multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems: Advancing adaptive management in Saginaw Bay(2009)

Project Description:
The CSCOR Multi-Stress program studies the impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ocean ecosystems, including estuaries and the Great Lakes. These projects are interdisciplinary, multiple investigator, and well-integrated studies designed to develop capabilities for understanding, predicting, and managing the effects of multiple stressors (both anthropogenic and natural) in coastal ecosystems. The “research to applications” phase is where Multiple Stressors, along with most CSCOR research programs, lead into CSCOR’s Ecological Forecasting. Within the time/funding constraints, most multiple stressors projects produce simulation models, but with very limited capability to forecasting. Successful investigators supported by CSCOR Multiple Stressors, or other similar programs can apply to CSCOR’s Ecological Forecasting and Regional Ecosystem Prediction programs to advance their information tools and models to predictive capability and transfer to the user community. Understanding Multiple Stressors in Coastal Ecosystems: Advancing Adaptive Management in Saginaw Bay: This project is part of the CSCOR Multi-Stress program. The CSCOR Multi-Stress program studies the impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ocean ecosystems, including estuaries and the Great Lakes. These projects are interdisciplinary, multiple investigator, and well-integrated studies designed to develop capabilities for understanding, predicting, and managing the effects of multiple stressors (both anthropogenic and natural) in coastal ecosystems. Synergistic effects of multiple anthropogenic stressors may result in complex ecosystem level effects with nonlinear and unexpected impacts in aquatic ecosystems. Modeling and empirical approaches may be used to evaluate these impacts, but these approaches generally lack a comprehensive framework for comparing models and their outputs, prioritizing information and data collections, or balancing outcomes with competing management objectives. To address these scientific and managerial challenges, the project proposes a novel, unique Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF) for facilitating information collection, implementing adaptive modeling approaches, and guiding research needs to improve management decision making. This framework uses input from agency managers, researchers and modelers, including both data to characterize ecosystems and socio-economic factors to drive modeling approaches and management actions. The proposed framework will be applied to Saginaw Bay, a coastal system greatly impacted by multiple stressors such as invasive species, changing land-use patterns, and climatic change.

Expected Outcome:
The outcomes of the CSCOR Multi-Stress Program include: • Conducting integrated studies of the effects of multiple stressors on ecological processes within a system. • Examining the role of stressors such as land use, watershed loadings, resource extraction, habitat modification, climate change, etc. on ecosystem functionality. • Modeling the ecological effects of natural and/or anthropogenic stresses from the organismal to ecosystem level. • Conducting economic evaluations of present and proposed management practices aimed at mitigating coastal environmental stress. The outcome of ths particular project will calibrate an ensemble of ecosystem models using extensive historical data for Saginaw Bay, develop a watershed and hydrological model for the coastal ecosystem, and develop human dimensions models for evaluating resource outcomes and management plans. These efforts will be undertaken at differing scales of resolution to model and evaluate water quality, fish production and economic metrics that are of importance to management agencies and the public.